Identification of the seasonal financial cycle and seasonally adjusted indicators of financial stability (the case of a mineral fertilizer manufacturing enterprise)

Abstract

The article proposes a methodology for identifying the phases of the seasonal financial cycle from monthly cash flows and a system of seasonally adjusted financial sustainability indicators. The empirical base consists of 60 months (2021–2025) of cash receipts and expenditures of Maxam-Chirchiq JSC and quarterly balance-sheet points for 2022–2026. STL decomposition yields a seasonal strength of F_s = 0.85; seasonal indices reach 1.67–1.78 in April–May and 0.38 in September. Using index thresholds of 1.2 and 0.8, the sales-peak (March–July), transition (February) and stock-accumulation/trough (August–January) phases are identified. The net seasonal cash gap in the trough amounted to 246.8 billion soums in 2023 (13.7 % of annual receipts) and 232.0 billion soums in 2025 (10.3 %); in 2024 the gap was shifted into gas payables. Two-sided seasonality is confirmed by the gas-payment profile (correlation of profiles 0.94). The year-end date is shown to be the most “favourable” point of the cycle: the current ratio in 2025 ranged from 1.07 (31 March) to 2.10 (31 December). Formulas, enterprise values and interpretation are given for the five-indicator system.