Transformation of population dynamics of sucking pests of cotton and fruit trees under climate change conditions

Abstract

This scientific article comprehensively analyzes the impact of climate change on the population of sucking pests of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) and fruit trees - apple (Malus domestica Borkh.), peach (Prunus persica L.) and grape (Vitis vinifera L.) - in Uzbekistan. Over the past thirty years (1994-2024), the average annual temperature in Uzbekistan has increased by 1.2-1.8°C and the precipitation regime has changed significantly. These changes directly affect the population growth rate, migration phenology, and winter survival of pests such as cotton aphid (Aphis gossypii Glover), cotton whitefly (Bemisia tabaci Gennadius), apple spider mite (Panonychus ulmi Koch), and scale insects (Quadraspidiotus perniciosus Comstock). The study summarized the results of field observations, trap data, and laboratory experiments conducted in Tashkent, Fergana, Samarkand, and Kashkadarya regions in 2015-2024. Population dynamics modeling methods (degree-day model and CLIMEX) were used to develop forecasts adapted to climate scenarios. The results show that, if current trends continue, by 2050, a number of pests may increase their annual generation by 15-30% and move their distribution range to the northern regions by 120-200 km. The article presents scientifically based recommendations for improving the integrated pest management (IPM) system, which combines biological, chemical and agrotechnical control methods, from the perspective of climate adaptation.