Green energy transition in central asia: capacity growth, technological diversification and system constraints

Abstract

This study reassesses the green-energy transition in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan using the latest harmonised capacity data available in 2026 and a structured review of 17 Scopus-indexed studies published in 2020-2026. The empirical design separates scale, speed and technological composition rather than treating installed renewable capacity as a single measure of transition maturity. Three indicators are calculated for 2023-2025: compound annual capacity growth, each country's contribution to regional capacity additions, and a technology-concentration index based on hydropower, solar and wind shares. Regional renewable capacity rose from 17.636 GW in 2023 to 25.482 GW in 2025, an increase of 44.5%. Uzbekistan accounted for 86.4% of the net regional addition and reached 10.027 GW, while solar and wind represented 75.6% of its renewable portfolio. Kazakhstan retained the most technologically balanced portfolio, whereas the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan remained strongly hydro-dependent. The results show that capacity expansion and transition quality are analytically distinct. A durable transition requires grid reinforcement, storage, flexible dispatch, competitive procurement, credible investment rules and regional electricity exchange. The article proposes a system-value framework in which new renewable capacity is evaluated by delivered generation, reliability, curtailment, carbon intensity and integration cost rather than by megawatts alone.