Economic forecasting of the dynamics of trade services volume and affecting factors in the Bukhara region

Abstract

This article examines the dynamics of the volume of trade services provided in the Bukhara region and the digital economy factors affecting this indicator using economic-statistical and econometric methods. The study assesses the effects of the number of Internet subscribers, active social media users, and the gross value added generated in e-commerce, the content sector, and mass media. Forecast indicators for 2026-2030 are developed using a multivariate econometric model, parabolic trend equations, and Holt's trend exponential smoothing method. Pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic scenarios for the development of trade services are also constructed. Forecast accuracy is evaluated using R², MAPE, RMSE, MAE, and Theil's U coefficient. The findings demonstrate that the development of digital infrastructure, e-commerce, and digital marketing tools contributes to the sustainable growth of trade services in the Bukhara region.