Financial diagnostic methods for detecting crisis risk in small business

Abstract

The article clarifies the economic content of crisis risk in small business entities and provides a comparative analysis of financial diagnostic methods used for its early detection. The author proposes a working definition of crisis risk based on its probabilistic, multifactor and dynamic nature, as well as an approach to systematizing risk factors by the levels "primary factors – intermediate financial symptoms – final risk states". Financial ratios, integral scoring, logistic regression, machine learning and dynamic models are evaluated against the criteria of information requirements, economic interpretability and suitability for small business data; a procedure for the stepwise selection of forecasting models and the verification of their quality, taking into account the cost of errors, is substantiated.