Identifying long-term development trends of industrial growth

Abstract

Sustainable industrial development of a region in the modern economy is a complex, multifactorial process characterized by a high degree of uncertainty. This study analyzes the scientific and practical aspects of applying trend and scenario forecasting methods to assess industrial development. Using the case of the Kashkadarya region, the historical dynamics of industrial indicators are examined, and development trends are identified through linear, exponential, and quadratic trend models. Within the framework of the study, optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic scenarios are constructed, and the probable trajectories of industrial development are evaluated. The results demonstrate that the integrated application of trend and scenario forecasting methods enables the formulation of scientifically grounded, flexible, and risk-sensitive decisions in industrial policy.