Forecasting the volume of farm enterprise output in Uzbekistan: a trend model approach

Abstract

The article analyses the dynamics of the output of farm enterprises in Uzbekistan in 2010–2024 and develops a forecast for 2025–2029. The aim of the study is to assess the influence of livestock and crop output on the total output of farms and to determine forecast values for the coming period. Using data from the National Statistics Committee, natural logarithmic transformation, multiple regression and linear trend models were applied. The regression results show that the effect of crop output is statistically significant (coefficient 0.726; p = 0.045), whereas the effect of livestock output is not statistically significant (0.238; p = 0.374). According to the trend-based forecast, farm output is expected to increase from UZS 134.6 trillion in 2024 to UZS 345.5 trillion in 2029. The results can be used in planning agricultural production and allocating resources.