Econometric assessment of the impact of human capital on digital economy development in the context of artificial intelligence technology adoption in Uzbekistan

Abstract

The article econometrically assesses the impact of human capital on the development of Uzbekistan's digital economy under the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies, using data for 2010-2024. A three-component composite digital economy index (DEI) is constructed, and human capital is proxied by tertiary enrolment. Autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) models are estimated with Newey-West (HAC) standard errors, including a regime dummy and an interaction term for the AI policy period. The long-run effect of human capital on the DEI is 0.460; its effect on ICT service exports was statistically insignificant before 2021, while in the AI policy period the short-run elasticity reached 1.04 and the long-run elasticity 1.46. Policy proposals for enriching human capital with AI competencies are developed.