Disparity between employment and GDP shares of small business in Uzbekistan: national and regional statistical analysis

Abstract

The article provides a statistical-analytical account of the role of small business entities in ensuring population employment in Uzbekistan over 2015-2025. The purpose of the study is to analyze the long-term dynamics of the sector's share in employment and gross domestic product, to identify inter-regional disparities, and to substantiate a diagnostic indicator that explains their structural nature. The research methods include statistical dynamic analysis, inter-regional comparative analysis, and a structural-diagnostic method based on the author's Employment-Value Gap (EVG) indicator. The study draws on official data from the Statistics Agency's SIAT database, the Central Bank, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, and reports of the World Bank, ILO, and UNDP. The results show that over 2015-2025 the sector's share in total employment fell only marginally, from 77.9% to 74.9% (3.1 percentage points), while its share in GDP fell from 64.6% to 52.2% (12.4 percentage points); as a result, the employment-value gap widened from 13.3 to 22.7 percentage points. The regional analysis revealed a 32.1-percentage-point disparity in the employment share (81.9% in Andijan region versus 49.8% in Tashkent city), confirming that the role of small business in job creation is shaped by a region's degree of industrial concentration. The findings can be applied in differentiating regional employment policy and in the practical work of statistical agencies and economic-analysis centers.