Econometric assessment and forecasting of the determinants of regional industry's export potential (the case of Andijan region)

Abstract

The article estimates the determinants of the export potential of industrial enterprises in Andijan region using a balanced panel of 16 administrative-territorial units for 2020–2025 (96 observations). Pooled OLS with year effects, two-way fixed effects and random effects models show that the volume of industrial output in constant prices is the only robust determinant of exports (elasticity 0.65–1.78), while the direct effects of investment, employment and the number of enterprises are unstable. An intervention ARIMA(0,1,0) model fitted to the real industrial output index for 2010–2025 puts the shock-free real growth rate at 7.2% per year; the out-of-sample forecast error (MAPE) is 0.17%. The forecast is complemented with scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation: under the baseline scenario, industrial output in 2025 prices reaches UZS 152,502.5 billion and exports reach USD 1,675.7 million by 2030.