The impact of seasonality on financial sustainability in joint-stock companies of Uzbekistan's chemical industry: panel analysis (2018-2026)

Abstract

The article builds a panel of five joint-stock companies of Uzbekistan's mineral fertilizer industry from public financial statements (annual data for 2018-2025, quarterly data for 2021-2026). Using discrete quarterly revenue, the seasonality profile and amplitude are quantified by company: nitrogen producers earn 33-41% of annual revenue in the second quarter with an amplitude of 1.9-2.8, whereas phosphate and potash producers show a flatter profile (1.3-2.2). First-quarter losses are shown to have become systemic for nitrogen plants in 2024-2026. On a panel of 35 firm-year observations, net margin is positively associated with equity autonomy (ρ = 0.44) and liquidity (ρ = 0.32), negatively with the interest burden (ρ = -0.29), and not significantly with the year-end inventory share, confirming the limited informativeness of annual balance-sheet ratios for seasonal firms. An industry-level "seasonal sustainability passport" is proposed.