The impact of climate change on wheat and cotton yields: panel data analysis by districts of Uzbekistan (2015-2024)

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of climatic factors on wheat and raw cotton yields using a district-level panel covering 194 districts of Uzbekistan over 2015-2024. A district fixed-effects model with region-specific trends is applied; the specification is justified by F, Breusch-Pagan LM, Mundlak, Pesaran CD and Wooldridge tests. The temperature-yield relationship for wheat is non-linear with an optimum of 28.1°C, while a 1°C rise in July-August temperature reduces cotton yield by 5.4%. Excess precipitation during the cotton season and stronger surface winds also depress yields, whereas surface runoff, a proxy for irrigation water availability, raises them.