Priority Directions For Diversifying Agricultural Exports

Abstract

This article examines the diversification of Uzbekistan's agricultural exports and the enhancement of their export potential. The study evaluates the export structure, the international competitiveness of agricultural products, and promising foreign markets using international trade data at the four-digit HS code level for the period 2010–2024. The stability of import demand in foreign markets is assessed using the coefficient of variation (CV), future import dynamics are forecast using the ARIMA model, and the comparative advantages of products are determined based on the Balassa Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index. Based on the findings, scientifically grounded recommendations are proposed for diversifying agricultural exports by product categories and destination markets, as well as for identifying priority export products and promising foreign markets.