A hybrid model for normative valuation of agricultural land under state ownership: based on integrating objective and market signals

Abstract

This paper develops a scientifically grounded, objective, and dynamically updated methodology for the normative valuation of agricultural land in the Republic of Uzbekistan under conditions of state land ownership and the absence of a free market pricing environment. The research employs regulatory and legal analysis, a comparative study of soil bonitation and cadastral methodologies, land reclamation assessment based on remote sensing data (NDSI spectral index), and econometric calibration via log-linear regression (OLS). A three-layered hybrid model (normative base, objective adjustment, market calibration) is proposed, along with a practical computational algorithm based on the multiplicative formula: NQ=RX×NEN×BHM×FR×MK×SK×IM. The econometric model constructed using test data demonstrated high accuracy (R²=0.978; MAPE=4.59%). For the first time in the context of Uzbekistan, a mechanism for the empirical calibration of the normative model based on electronic auction prices for land lease rights is proposed, while retaining state ownership of the land. The suggested model can be applied across various domains, including taxation, credit collateralization, leasing, compensation, subsidies, insurance, and investment appraisal.